Ethiopia- Meles’s rule coming to an end by attrition

24 September 2006
By Zerihun Tesfaye
September 24, 2006 — With the unleashing of terror in the urban centers and the rural communities of Ethiopia after the debacle of the May 2005 elections, what little legitimacy Meles & his clique might have claimed over the years were totally lost. Events unfolding in the past year have made this abundantly clear. The semi state of emergency Meles declared the day after the elections can only be seen as an admission of the loss of this legitimacy and, at the same time, as a declaration that from that time onwards, his rule is going to rest on the security apparatus and the military.
How difficult must it be then, when the institution on which he and the clique pinned their hopes for their future rule starts being eroded under their watchful eyes in such a short time. Such is indeed the case when you have two Generals (a decorated war veteran!) Colonels, other officers and soldiers defect en masse; and to make it worse, declare their intention of joining opponents of the regime and declaring their intent to fight for its overthrow.
What makes it more alarming and painful to the clique is the fact that some of these officers were ex-POWs of the previous regime, who grew in EPRDF’s bosom, being inculcated with its ‘ideology’ cum propaganda, and who had distinguished themselves with its own criteria. Indeed, it ought to be more than alarming to the clique as to what might be larking behind its seemingly stable armed forces if these officers cut their ties loose despite the obvious loss of rank and privilege that will come with their defection,.
As if the rank of the defecting officers and soldiers was not alarming enough, the loci, timing and number of people involved must have shocked the clique, for it was a definite failure of its much talked about security apparatus - especially that of its military intelligence - to not be aware when such plans were initiated, organized and implemented with apparent ease, even though it involved a large group, and was located in a supposedly sensitive and high alert area. The clique that was highly rankled by this event, having no other choice or rather not knowing any other method of looking inward, went back to its known method of witch-hunting under the guise of Gimgema throughout the armed forces a practice which it supposedly had abandoned a few years back. The result of this was apparently the dismissal of hundreds of soldiers deemed sympathetic to the officers that defected or to other political opposition groups, and the imprisonment of scores of officers.
If this was meant to intimidate and tighten the clique’s hold on the army, it seems to have backfired, for another General and Colonel later to be joined by a Major defected in a similar manner, yet again undermining the supposedly newly strengthened military intelligence - further proving that the erosion will continue unabated until the trickle becomes a flood.
It is clear that the biggest slap on the face of the clique that caused the greatest consternation was the defection of Brigadier General Kemal, and his group for it was the clique that rushed to announce the defection so as to minimize any publicity damage the defection might inflict on the already blemished image of the regime. This step of the regime, however, would not have been futile had this been the only defection from its ranks. It was not to be. Way before the clique ‘s next press release, defection by Brigadier General Hailu Gonfa and Colonel Gemechu Ayana made headlines only to be followed by another high ranking officer Major Tesfaye Yemane.
As if this evident crumbling from the inside was not crushing enough, deep from inside one of the regime’s dungeons comes out a book written by one of the principal leaders of the opposition, who is falsely accused and jailed on trumped up charges, that narrates in great detail of events prior to, during, and after the elections of May 2005 and the regime’s descent into the abyss. This again became an occasion for the regime to realize how porous its security apparatus had become leading it to apparently interrogate and jail its own police and security responsible for the maintenance of its dungeon. In addition to this, the regime’s jitteriness was evident in its arbitrary decision of curtailing visitation rights of non immediate family members.
In as much as the great majority of the population is convinced that the regime’s heydays are over and downward descent has started, and its eventual fall is gathering momentum it has now become clear that, from what we read in the news, even stalwart regime supporters and sympathizers are also sensing this and are situating themselves in favorable positions.
The defection of over seventy diplomatic personnel, Ambassadors and staff members of Embassies to date, including a diplomat who once had the trust of the Prime Minister to serve him as his personal assistant of protocol is yet another major evidence of this trend that pervades the section that the clique thought was safe territory.
In addition personalities (Woldemichael Meshesha, the Vice president of the Federal First Instance Court, and Firehiwot Samuel, the president of the Supreme Court of SNNP region) deemed loyal to the clique and were duly appointed to investigate if there was ‘excess’ during the June and November massacres, and who were thought to come out with reports supporting the clique decided to defect rather than acquiesce to such an expectation, causing a further blow. Add to this the recent defection of a senior prosecutor (Alemayehu Zemedkun) who claimed to have decided to do so rather than participate in the kangaroo trial of the opposition leaders and one could see definite outlines of the developing picture.
The cumulative effects of these events have made members of the clique so nervous, that they have abandoned all pretenses of running the country and have gone on all out campaign at home and abroad to recruit sympathizers using all methods of enticement including, true to form, tribal mobilization. The desperation to get any semblance of support from the Diaspora is so great, that the vice prime minister (who also happens to be the head of the Amhara branch of EPRDF,) abandoned his responsibility of co-coordinating efforts to rescue and rehabilitate flood victims back home, to tour the US and mobilize as many supporters or sympathizers as possible by offering urban-land in some instances, investment opportunities and possible appointments in others. Gleaming through reports of his US adventures, it becomes obvious that his deployment was a total failure and a further confirmation, if any was needed, that support for the clique is hard to come by and no amount of enticement could make the clique acceptable to the great majority in the Diaspora. In this regard one sees a resonance in the stand of Ethiopians at home and abroad.
As discouraging as the domestic reality is to the clique, it can not see much encouragement from its international sponsors either. Gone are the days when Meles and his rogue buddies in the region were hailed as the new breed of African leaders, renaissance men…or other accolades, and are now recognized for what they truly are, petty dictators and potentates. The problem with the West has always been, as a recent article by the Economist, “Coddling Monsters has a price” indicates, the danger their policy makers face when they befriend tyrants and how this later complicates things when they want to extricate themselves after the tyrants’ usefulness has ended. This truly is the case, despite occasional claim of strategic partnership…etc, between Meles and his sponsors. Even here, the fact that Meles’s biggest past promoter Tony Blair is being pushed out of the premiership and the coming end of term for Bush doesn’t bode well for the clique. The clique could be rest assured that the coming Labor leader would have no incentive in propping up a murderous tyrant who has shed all democratic trappings and is hanging on power by brute force alone. The US president from whichever party it hails can not be expected to continue the failed and unproductive foreign policy of George Bush with regards to Ethiopia and the region, especially after witnessing the result of the misguided policy in Somalia.
All this doesn’t seem to have been lost on the head of the clique who of late has been heard lamenting about the failure of his underlings in implementing the correct policy guidelines he laid down as being the main reason people are against EPRDF! This Prime Minister of Ethiopia who also happens to be the chief of TPLF who likes to speak with forked tongues said as much in his opening remarks at the recent TPLF congress. (Which by the way was apparently not attended by the brotherly leaders of ANDM and OPDO even though, all the heads of the affiliated groupies were there to extend their solidarity on yet another successful congress and pay homage to the head of the clique!! Should we read anything into this?)
The people of Ethiopia are totally convinced of the regimes tenuous hold on power and that its final demise could not be too far off. What seems to have caused panic, confusion and bewilderment in the camp of the clique is not this evident reality amongst the general populace – that has been well noted since the election -, but rather the doubt, uncertainty fear and defection that is creeping into its camp and the belief by this sector that indeed EPRDF’s rule is coming to an end sooner than later.
Members of the clique, on their part, seem to be preparing for such an eventuality by positioning some of their cronies as Ambassadors and others as Counselors in some western capitals; sending of their children to these same capitals under the guise of higher education; and the sending of their spouses and close relatives under the guise of medical treatment.
Along this, it is also useful to remember the report in the international media a short while back, that money transfer from Ethiopia to banks in Britain has shown a significant increase, as a sign that the clique is also preparing itself financially for such an event.
While all these maneuvers are being executed by the Meles clique the semi official newspaper Reporter’s public role appears to be to incessantly plea for the TPLF to close ranks and mend its ways (going as far as saying EPRDF’s enemy is EPRDF itself in one of its latest Editorials) - as if there is enough time left to do that - to mollify the fears harbored by the loyal foot soldiers - to make them think that nothing out of the ordinary is occurring - and to stop them from taking actions that are right, timely and independent.
All these taken together might be disconcerting to people who nonetheless are working within the regime, but who genuinely believe that they are doing all they can to better the lives of the masses of the Ethiopian people. These civil servants and cadres are now realizing that both they and their cause have been betrayed by this ruling clique. These people might believe and, are in fact encouraged by the members the clique to believe, that their lot is tied to that of the clique and must be committed to go all the way to the end - to the demise of the regime.
This, however, need not be so, and should definitely not be so. All of the opposition political parties and groupings with no exception, have consistently called on and encouraged the people who currently are serving the regime, those that have no blood in their hands, and are thus clean, to come and join the people’s ranks. It is never too late to do so.

* The author is a retired educator residing in California. He can be reached at senbete@hotmail.com