Once favoured East African leader's lustre fades

Once favoured E. African leaders' lustre fades
Analysis
13 Nov 2005 08:18:35 GMTSource: ReutersBy Andrew Cawthorne
NAIROBI, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Corpses in city streets. Heads cracked and bloodied by rifle-butts. Stone-wielding rioters running from shots and tear-gas on dusty fields.
They were not the images supposed to be coming out of three major east African nations whose leaders had been feted by the West as beacons of hope for a troubled continent.
But they have been all too familiar scenes of late as dozens of protesters died in Ethiopia, a poll in Tanzania's Zanzibar islands was overshadowed by violence and fraud claims, and Kenya's constitution debate degenerated into daily clashes.
"People had too high expectations of these countries," said Marcel Rutten, an Africa specialist at The Netherlands' Leiden University. "Now we are getting down to earth."
The recent turbulence across east Africa -- and the often heavy-handed official responses -- must be particularly galling for British leader Tony Blair who made the continent a priority of his leadership of the EU and G8 blocs this year.
He appointed both Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa to his prestigious Africa Commission as examples of good democratic governance.
But the international image of former rebel leader Meles has been badly tarnished by a questionable May election win, two subsequent bouts of clashes between police and protesters killing some 70 people, and an uncompromising stance towards a border dispute with Eritrea.
Tanzania's Mkapa, in turn, is under pressure for his security forces' repression of opposition protesters and fraud allegations at the recent Zanzibar elections.
While reporters saw police pummelling protesters with rifle-butts, sticks and boots as they arrested them on the main Zanzibar island of Unguja, worse was alleged on the smaller island Pemba. There, at least one person was killed and residents speak of rape and looting.
"Meles and Mkapa were Blair's favourites in Africa, so he has a bit of a P.R. problem on his hands," said Patrick Smith, editor of the British-based Africa Confidential newsletter.
Kenya, too, has an image problem.
When he won election in 2002, President Mwai Kibaki's National Rainbow Coalition (NARC) was feted at home and round the world as a fresh start from the corruption and authoritarianism of ex-President Daniel arap Moi's 24-year rule.
But two years on, his government has fallen out with major Western donors, whose early enthusiasm has turned into frustration with continued corruption and tribalism.
Violence and political mud-slinging throughout a campaign before the Nov. 21 referendum on a new constitution has further hurt Kenya's reputation abroad. Nine people have died.
IF IT WAS ZIMBABWE...
Kenyan columnist Kwamchetsi Makokha said the troubles in his country, Ethiopia and Tanzania were evidence of the difficulty of entrenching the relatively recent introduction of multi-party politics in a region used to "Big Man" rule.
"There is a heavy desire on the part of some to revert back to 'I'm in charge, so just listen to me and follow'," he said.
"But that is not going down well because we've crossed some bridges and can't go back. People have found their voices. So you get tension, conflict while multi-partyism finds its level."
Many across the vast east African region have questioned the relatively muted international reaction to recent events.
With the exception of a few calls for inquiries or restraint, there has been little firm action or speech.
"Why do they just get on their planes and go away without saying anything?" one despairing Zanzibar opposition supporter, Sudi Nuzi, asked of poll observers watching the Oct. 30 vote. Foreign nations may be plain weary of Africa's intractable problems or wary of being accused of colonial-style meddling -- a frequent riposte when they weigh in with strong comment.
But there is also an element of embarrassment at their favourites' disappointing political records, analysts said.
"If it was (President Robert) Mugabe in Zimbabwe instead of Meles in Ethiopia, you'd see a very different reaction from the West," said editor Smith. "That international 'pick and choose' approach makes people feel very irritable, very cynical."
Strong international censure could also have a negative impact by pushing leaders into a corner and giving hardliners an excuse to come out stronger, some believe.
Then there are global political considerations. While Africa was an important battlefield during the old "Cold War", some countries have been sidelined unless they are of strategic importance in the West's new "war on terror".
"The ups-and-downs of democratic processes in far-flung regions are now of less interest to the big powers," Kenyan analyst Makokha said. "If a region doesn't fit into the terror matrix, they just don't care."
Another reason the world may not be worrying itself too much about events in Kenya, Ethiopia and Tanzania is that their economies are all doing relatively well, with annual growth near or above 5 percent despite widespread poverty.
"There is an element of 'if the figures are good, let's leave politics to the local guys'," a Western diplomat said.
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