Into the lion's den

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The international community is paying greater attention to Somalia though there are few signs of progress towards lasting peace in the country, writes Gamal Nkrumah

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It's the law. The vital question, however, is it Islamic Sharia law, or the law of the jungle? The power and influence of the Islamic Courts Union is fast expanding throughout southern and central Somalia. The militias of the militant Islamists have overrun much of the south of the country. But more importantly, politically they are winning the battle for hearts and minds. Somalis, especially residents of the capital and largest city Mogadishu, have proved to be loyal supporters of the Islamist militias. With all these aces, the Islamic Courts Union is in the ascendant.

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Militiamen of the Islamic Courts Union patrols the streets of Jowhar, 90km north of the Somali capital Mogadishu

Nevertheless, there are growing signs that the Islamic Courts Union rode their luck a little following their triumph over a coalition of discredited US-backed secular warlords -- the so- called Anti-Terror Alliance. They now face the tormented transitional government of Somali President Abdullah Youssef, a former self-styled ruler of the northeastern Somali enclave of Puntland.

The Islamic Courts Union's militias now control virtually the entire southern and central regions of Somalia. Their supporters say that the militias have behaved impeccably, testament to their faith and discipline. Their detractors, on the other hand, say that they have looted and acted abominably. Truth is hard to ascertain. There are pockets of resistance, like Baidoa -- seat of the transitional government. The battle for Puntland will determine the course of the war and the fate of the war-torn country.

It is in this context that President Youssef flew to the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to garner support for his beleaguered transitional government. Ethiopian troops now patrol the 1,000- kilometre border while the Islamic Court Union claim that they have already invaded Somalia and that they have a strong presence in Baidoa. Both the Ethiopians and the Somali government hotly deny the claim of Islamists. "We do not at present have troops inside Somalia and we will not act unilaterally," Ethiopia Ambassador to Egypt Ibrahim Idris told Al-Ahram Weekly. "We will only intervene with the consent of the Somali government and in coordination with the regional and international community," he explained.

Ethiopia is a country that inflames passions in Somalia. And by far the biggest strategic worry for Ethiopia is Somalia. Ethiopia, however, is careful to work in tandem with the transitional Somali government. Yet an Ethiopian charm offensive was met with, at best, a nuanced response in Somalia. Leaders of the Islamic Courts Union have warned that they do not want any foreign military presence on Somali soil, and especially not Ethiopian troops.

All eyes will now be on Puntland, the northeastern Somali enclave geographically closest to the Arabian Peninsula. If it falls in the hands of the militant Islamist militias, all hell will break loose. Ethiopia would most likely be called in to dislodge the Islamist militias. For the Somali president it would be an open affront that his political enemies overrun his own homeland. It would be a humiliating loss of face. Youssef will undoubtedly go to great lengths to avoid such a politically ruinous fate. In all likelihood, he would do business with the devil if needs be. In this case, the devil's emissary is Ethiopia.

At a broad strategic level, however, Ethiopian intervention in Somalia could turn the tables on the militant Islamists. Ethiopia has one of Africa's largest, most powerful and battle-hardened armies. Meanwhile, the truth about the precise nature of the Islamic Courts Union remains a mystery. Many observers believe that they are not as militant and ideologically dogmatic as they sound. Others believe otherwise. What emerges is a patchy picture of a disciplined and principled militia that by and large is popular with the Somali people.

So where do the new rulers of Mogadishu go from here? Provided that external conditions remain unfavourable, things could turn more sour, with the transitional Somali government settling in with Western and regional backing, and the militant Islamist opposition transforming itself into a restive and angry opposition. Another danger is that the transitional government's understandable lack of coordination might get in the way of radical political reform in Somalia which would leave the door wide open for the Islamic Courts Union to institute a religious state. However, as far as the Islamists are concerned, the greatest danger is of gross foreign intervention in domestic Somali affairs.

Many Somalis are suspicious of Ethiopia sending peace-keeping troops to the country. Somalis are also angry about open United States support for the much-loathed secular warlords. The US was the chief instigator of a conference on Somalia in Addis Ababa in which African and European countries participated. Washington is especially concerned about the influence of Al-Qaeda in Somalia. Somalis last week brandished placards that read: "Open your eyes and ears America! Sharia law is the only solution!" and "Democracy, go to hell!" The business community in the country also support the Islamic Courts Union forces.

"We offered the transitional government dialogue but it has unilaterally decided to bring foreign troops," Sheikh Abdul-Qader Omar, deputy chairman of the Islamic Courts Union told supporters in Mogadishu.

Interim Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi is engaged in talks with representatives of the Islamic Courts Union. Gedi wants foreign peace- keeping troops. So far the Islamists refuse to compromise. It is obvious, however, that compromise is not being pursued with much vigour.

"The Islamic Courts Union must learn to compromise," Somali Ambassador to Egypt Abdullah Hassan Mahmoud told the Weekly. "The only way forward is for Somalis to unite and support the transitional government," he explained.

But as horse-trading begins to form a new government that incorporates militant Islamist leaders of the Islamic Courts Union, it is important to keep visible what is at stake: lasting peace in Somalia. The Anti-Terror Alliance warlords and the Islamists signed a ceasefire agreement last month. Sheikh Sherif Ahmed signed on behalf of the Islamists and Nur Daqle signed for the Anti- Terror Alliance. Will the militant Islamists, who now control huge swathes of Somalia, strike a similar deal with the transitional government in Baidoa? Many Somalis genuinely hope so.

Putting Somalia back together must be the top priority of everyone who has the country's interests at heart. Only by including the Islamic Courts Union can that be done. Marginalisation of the militant Islamists will only create another wave of bloodletting.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Somalia is fast deteriorating. The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is highlighting rising malnutrition rates in southern Somalia. According to the WFP, an estimated 20 per cent of Somali children need supplementary or therapeutic feeding. The international community must step in and help with relief assistance instead of only focussing on military intervention.

Source: Al- Ahram Weekly