By C. Bryson Hull
NAIROBI, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Twice badly burned in Somalia, the United States appears to be pursuing a third intervention that many Western and regional diplomats say could set off a disastrous war in the Horn of Africa. Sent into a policy tailspin by its backing of Mogadishu warlords toppled by Islamists earlier this year, Washington has resurrected a two-year-old plan to send African peacekeepers into Somalia. Peacekeeping, Somalia and the United States have proved a volatile mix. Washington abandoned a joint operation with the United Nations after 18 U.S. soldiers were killed and hundreds of Somalis slaughtered in the 1993 "Black Hawk Down" incident. U.N. diplomats say Washington is expected this week to unveil a draft Security Council resolution authorising the peacekeeping mission. But a chorus of voices from Western and regional diplomats to independent analysts say deployment is likely to trigger war between a shaky, Ethiopian-backed interim government and the powerful Eritrean-backed Islamist movement. "If they take the cheap, easy option for peacekeepers, without recognising there is a very expensive follow-on like they did in Iraq, then they are going down the same track," said a Western military expert who follows Somalia. With the Islamists trenchantly opposing any foreign intervention -- particularly Ethiopian -- and saying it will be grounds for holy war, even an indirect American hand in Somalia's crisis could set east Africa ablaze, experts say. Diplomats say Washington is pushing a plan originally backed by IGAD, a seven-nation east African diplomatic grouping that is itself split over Somalia and the thousands of troops deployed there by U.S. ally and member Ethiopia. Ethiopia has acknowledged sending in several hundred military trainers but denies sending combat troops. "The argument being advanced is that this is to prevent Ethiopian intervention, but you cannot prevent something that has already happened," said a European diplomat. "Washington is running against the tide of international and regional opinion."
"SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY"
Diplomats say Britain and France back Washington, but are trying to reduce the force's mandate and cut out the participation of soldiers from neighbouring east African nations -- which the Islamists oppose as a violation of sovereignty. A U.N.-commissioned report earlier this month said at least 10 nations -- including five of IGAD's seven members -- are militarily backing the Somali rivals, adding fuel to an already combustible mixture. "The region is sullied by its associations with both parties," the European diplomat said. "Ideally, there wouldn't be any Security Council resolution." A war of leaks and propaganda designed to paint the anarchic nation either as a battleground for the West against terrorism or for Islam versus Western-backed invaders from Ethiopia, has ratcheted tensions to breaking point. "Neither side seems to want to call this a simple struggle for power that could be resolved through negotiation," regional analyst Matt Bryden said. "If the international community acquiesces and approaches this problem as another war on terror, that will become a self-fulfilling prophecy." The U.N. report, on violations to Somalia's widely flouted 1992 arms embargo, warned this month that fighting between the Somali factions would drag in Ethiopia and Eritrea and could result in terrorist attacks in Kenya and Ethiopia. That report also included some widely questioned accusations about Iranian and Hezbollah backing for the Islamists that diplomats say were likely planted by Western intelligence agencies to demonise the latter. Those accusations came soon after two letters surfaced that were said to be written by a top Islamist advocating assassinations, suicide bombings and the instigation of uprisings among ethnic Somalis in Ethiopia and Kenya. Though experts question their authenticity, diplomats say the United States opted for deployment of peacekeepers rather than dialogue after Somalia's government produced them to back its and Addis Ababa's accusation that the Islamists are led by terrorists. "All of these moves push us to the threshold of war. We are at that threshold now. Anything else like this will push us over," the military expert said. All that may be keeping the dogs of war at bay, he added, was rain -- which is flooding much of Somalia and making it hard to move soldiers and weapons around.
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