Ethiopia and Kenya in Somalia is this an outsourcing in American Policy?

Scott A. Morgan

By all accounts the situation in Somalia is not improving. The escalating rhetoric and violence have been compounded by monsoon type rainfall. This is just another factor that may determine whether or not a full blown war will break out in Somalia.

Now the interests of the United States have been represented in the area by two nations. These nations Kenya and Ethiopia have had long standing good relationships with Washington. Both are Key allies in the War on Terror. And both have interests in Somalia.

Ethiopia fought a brief border clash with the last functioning regime in Mogadishu back in the late 1970s. Since the collapse of law and order in the 90s Ethiopia has sent troops next door to support a weak, UN backed Government on three separate occasions. The forces currently in Somalia are on the third incursion.

Kenya has different interests when it comes to Somalia. Although it states that it has no political or territorial designs about what happens in Somalia there are several instances where it has justifiable concerns. There is a sizable number of Somali refugees in Kenya, There have been raids where cattle have been taken and smuggling is a problem.

Recently there were claims by the Union of Islamic Courts that US and Ethiopian Forces were preparing to attack Somalia from bases in Kenya. This has been denied by the Kenyans and the US has made no statement confirming or denying this claim. But with US Forces active in the region there is a modicum of credibility to this story.

So what is the goal of the Administration? Do they want an all out war in Somalia? Probably not but a stable non-Islamic Somalia is the ultimate goal that Washington has. So what role will Ethiopia and Kenya play? They have boots on the ground now but have not been attacked yet. So what happens when war breaks out?
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